On 24 July 2012 in a lecture at Sydney Institute, Professor Murray Salby clearly demonstrated the widely held belief, promoted by IPCC, is wrong. It is not rising CO2 which leads to increased global temperature. Increasing temperature leads to rising levels of CO2. More importantly this rise in level of CO2 is due to natural not human activity.
This means all the effort and money being spent on reducing human CO2 emissions is waste of time and money.
There is a link to video of the lecture at the end of this post but first a short summary.
IPCC models show global temperature rising over the next 100 years like this.
The models show the rise in temperature almost exactly matches the assumed rise in CO2. This should come as no surprise as it’s built into the models.
But when we look at actual global temperatures compared to measured levels of CO2 this correlation between temperature and CO2 does not exist, certainly since 1997. It looks as though there may appear to be a correlation in the late 1980s possibly as far as 1997 but as people are taught repeatedly in statistics classes
Correlation is not causation
Correlation is not causation
It could just have been a coincidence which lasted 5 to 15 years and projecting the same correlation will continue for the next 100 years is just silly. Especially when we can see there is no correlation over at least the last 15 years.
The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere does not increase at a steady rate. For one thing there is a difference between winter and summer, as the following graph shows. The graph also shows some years there is a bigger increase and others hardly any at all.
The following graph which shows the change in CO2 levels (rather than the levels directly) makes this much clearer.
There are big swings in the amount of CO2 emitted. Taking the mean as 1.6 ppmv/year (at a guess) there are +/- swings of around 1.2 nearly +/- 100%.
And, surprise surprise, the change in net emissions of CO2 is very strongly correlated with changes in global temperature.
For any given year the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will be the sum of
- all the net annual emissions of CO2
- in all previous years.
For each year the net annual emission of CO2 is proportional to the annual global mean temperature.
This means the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will be related to the sum of temperatures in previous years.
So CO2 levels are not directly related to the current temperature but the integral of temperature over previous years.
The following graph again shows observed levels of CO2 and global temperatures but also has calculated levels of CO2 based on sum of previous years temperatures (dotted blue line).
What you have just read is enough to kill the CO2 is responsible for global warming claim stone dead.
But there’s more.
The following graphs shows the discrepancy between models and observations of incoming visible (Short Wave) light and outgoing infrared radiation (Long Wave).
The discrepancy is about 30 wm-2 for incoming SW and 20 wm-2 for LW.
But the amount of warming IPCC attribute to CO2 is 4wm-2
In other words the claimed CO2 affect is swamped by discrepancies an order of magnitude larger!
I strongly urge you to watch Professor Salby’s 2012 lecture to Sydney Institute.
Hat tip to The Hockey Schtick for providing the link.
Why not watch Professor Salby’s 2011 lecture to Sydney Institute.