Thanks to Godfrey Bartlett EssexWalks.com

Godfrey sent me this email

Hi,
Just a note to say I find your analysis of temperature and sea level records fascinating.
As much as I love nature reserves for leisure purposes, I’m getting an increasing sense that the big enviro-charities are having too much influence on public expenditure – indeed they themselves are in receipt of large grants for various projects.
I’ve referred to your excellent blog on our website – in the history section on Wivenhoe – another huge area they plan to give up to the sea.
http://www.essexwalks.com/walks/wivenhoe.html#page=page-4

I look forward to more of your insights on data manipulation, especially where it pertains to Essex.

Cheers,
Godfrey Bartlett

Good to know people are reading the blog and appreciate it.

The coast of Tendring is under threat from Environment Agency, Defra and Natural England who uncritically base their policies on IPCC claims of catastrophic claims of  global warming and sea level rise.

EA claim it will be uneconomic to maintain sea defenses in face of projected sea level rise so the best thing is to knock them down just in case!

Click on the following link (or copy url to your browser)

http://woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1996.67/plot/rss/from:1996.67/trend

And you will see this graph

 

rss_fromSep1996

Showing the trend in global temperature from September 1996 to June 2014 is flat (to be pedantic the trend is very slightly negative).  A period of  17 years and 10 months.

This is despite the large rise in temperature around 1997/98 due to an exceptional El Nino.

During this period CO2 continued to rise as this graph shows

http://woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1996.67/plot/rss/from:1996.67/trend/plot/esrl-co2/from:1996.67/scale:0.03/offset:-11.0

rss_tempAndCo2fromSep1996

 

So overall CO2 (the blue line) has been rising from 1996 to now even though there are seasonal variations.

Rising CO2 causes temperature to rise

Temperature hasn’t risen since 1996

Hmmmmmm

Richard Feynman was one of the great theoretical physicists of 20th century. Here is his description of how science works (or at least how it should work).

In particular note

If it (the theory) disagrees with experiment it’s wrong
It doesn’t matter who proposed it or how beautiful it is
If it disagrees with experiment it’s wrong

In that short simple statement is the key to science

 

The motto of the Royal Society, one of the oldest scientific institutions in the world, is Nullius in verba – take no one’s word for it.  Or in plain language

Check for yourself

The cost of not checking is anyone (goverment, EU, DEFRA, EA, IPCC etc) can tell you any old rubbish

With the internet and sites like the wonderful woodfortrees.org it is easy to check for yourself.

Sea level tide gauge data can be downloaded from Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level here’s the graph of sea level for Felixstowe

felixstoweSeaLevel

Does this graph show any sign of dangerously accelerating sea level rise,
or even any sea level rise?

A few years ago I looked at the rates of sea level rise around the uk.

Being able to check  does not mean it is easy to get government, EU, DEFRA, EA to change their mind – does anyone remember Yes Minister?

You may have seen in media statements like Scientists say ….

These statements should more properly say SOME Scientists say

There are thousands if not millions of scientists who feel the IPCC claims are exaggerated in fact the greatest danger from climate change is from COOLING not warming.

Media rarely give an space to views opposing IPCC.  I have never seen any discussion of the number of scientists who do not support IPCC.

In July 2014 there was a conference in Los Vegas featuring scientists and others who do not support IPCC.  You can watch videos here.

If you only have time to watch one,  why not this one which features Dr Nils-Axel Morner who has been researching sea levels for around 40 years.  Dr Morners view is there is and will not be no dangerous rise in sea levels.

Returning to Wivenhoe and EA’s plan to knockdown sea walls the most important thing is

Don’t Give Up

EA wanted to knock a 200 metre hole in sea wall at Kirby-le-Soken, well actually they wanted to make 2 holes.  One they made but the other has a public footpath which helped villagers mount a campaign to stop EA from making this hole in sea wall.

I don’t know exactly why EA changed their mind about Kirby project but it seems 2 things might have made a difference.

A large number of people protesting, including around 200 people holding a protest walk along the wall.

Challenging EA’s claims of sea level rise and loss of salt marsh.  This was helped by both EA and NE releasing results of salt marsh surveys showing salt marsh had been growing back all by itself!!

Finally however much DEFRA, NE, EA pretend there actions are based on science they are based on POLICY as chapter 5 of this document from DECC makes clear.

The chairman of DECC is John Gummer now Lord Deben, good to know that around 20 years after promoting dodgy beef burgers to his daughter he’s still active in the environmental propaganda business.

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