Central England Temperatures and HadCRUT4 – Feb 2014

CET, the world’s longest instrumental temperature record, clearly show temperatures have been close to current levels many times since 1660.

This is a fatal problem for the theory of man made global warming (aka climate change).

How can human emissions of CO2 have caused record temperatures recently if

  1. Temperatures have risen and fallen at least 10 times since 1660
  2. Temperatures have been close to current levels in 16th, 17th, 18th centuries


Here are some of the highs

1686 10.13
1737 10.37
1781 10.20
1834 10.34
1868 10.38
1921 10.47
1949 10.62
2006 10.82


HadCRUT4, the temperature record produced by Met Office and CRU, runs from about 1850.  HadCRUT4 shows a broadly similar pattern to CET, some of the difference are

  • Lower temperatures in 19th century and a steeper rise to 21th century
  • A dip around 1900-1920 which is not show in CET


The Department of Energy and Climate Change publication
Central England and global surface temperature

has this graphdecc_cet_hadcrut4


Strange in the DECC graph CET  starts in 1772, not 1660.

Strange the repeated warming doesn’t make an appearance.

Has DECC got a different version of the data? I think we should be told.

The data and python code to produce graphs (apart from one from DECC) are here.


What does all this mean?

If temperatures have been rising and falling for 350 years it’s hard to see why the rise in 20th century should have a different cause (ie man made CO2).

This then means all the money being spent on climate change mitigation is a total waste,
though kind of helpful for people selling wind farms
or making a living from ‘Climate Change‘.


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2 Responses to Central England Temperatures and HadCRUT4 – Feb 2014

  1. Roger H Brown says:

    You are right, but this proves nothing except that nature fluctuates. It is still quite possible that CO2 increases in the atmosphere are contributing to temperature rises, but other factors such as volcanoes and solar variations can mask the rise for long periods.

    • Jeremy says:

      Thanks for comment Roger

      If natural variability is sufficient to explain temperature rise then there is no reason to worry about CO2.

      It is not usual to suggest two opposing mechanisms are responsible for keeping things roughly stable (apart from some natural cycles). But if you did you would need to come up with a reason why this balancing should stop.

      This post shows the net amount CO2 increases in the atmosphere depends on temperature and the level of CO2 does not control temperature.

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